A European Cyclone

If the results of last week's European elections were almost exactly as bleak as forecast (29 May) the results across the rest of the EU for the Left were little better. The only glimmer of good cheer came from Athens where PASOK went up to nine seats reflecting its lead over New Democracy in the opinion polls in Greece, and Ireland, where the financial crisis and the public resultant re-evaluation of the merits of both regulation and Lisbon saw the Irish Labour party win 2/3 seats while the sugar-daddy of the transnational Libertas Party Declan Ganley and the man who funded the No Campaign failed to win a seat.

But before looking at continental calamities it is instructive to start at home. The big and bad news was the twin victories by the BNP with Andrew Brons, former activist in the National Socialist Movement and the National Front, edging out Labour's Richard Corbett in Yorkshire and Humberside and Nick Griffin, the BNP leader, just scraping in by less than 5000 votes in the North West.

The resurrection of UKIP by the Westminster expenses scandal and the concerted campaign by 'Love Music, Hate Racism' and 'Hope not Hate' stopped the anticipated wider breakthrough, although it should be noted that in the East Midlands the BNP would have won a seat on their vote last Thursday in 2004, but failed this time because the Region was down one seat because of the EU's enlargement to include Romania and Bulgaria. Yet it is difficult not to be dismayed that England has for the first time elected fascist and extreme-right Members of Parliament.

The other winners were UKIP and, to a much lesser extent, the Greens. UKIP went up, on a reduced number of seats from 12, five years ago, to 13. Meanwhile the Greens despite pushing their vote up by more than a third, from 6.2% to 8.6%, remained becalmed on 2 seats. There may be a silver lining. While neither was the 2004's result for both UKIP and the Greens mirrored in 2005's General Election, nevertheless the collapse of Labour's vote  in  Brighton, where Caroline Lucas MEP and the Green Party leader is the Prospective Parliamentary Candidate, may augur well for Britain's first Green MP at the next General Election.

The Tories and Liberals essentially flatlined with the former up one per cent and the latter down an identical amount. Labour were the biggest losers down 6.9% to a share of the poll of 15.7% which was the worst in a National Election since 1910. There was scant concilation for the Left, the combined forces of Arthur Scargill's 'Socialist Labour Party', Bob Crow's 'No2EU' and the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) this time around was identical with 'Respect' and the SSP's performance five years ago.

What was the curse? Voter fatigue with Labour was one factor. As we saw from 1979-94 Labour in successive European Elections saw its seats go from 17 to 32, 45 and 62. Since with the introduction of PR in 1999, it has been 29 and 19. So this time it could only be worse, all compounded by 'a plague on all your houses' consequent on the expenses debacle in Westminster. Nevertheless 13 was disastrous. even if it was the RMT's intervention that gave Richard Corbett's seat to the Fascists. Yet again it may be too quick and simple. Another case of unjustified English exceptionalism. For looking across the Continent where there was no comparative expense scandals and not necessarily mid-term blues the Socialists had similar disastrous results. In Germany the SPD's 20.8% was its worse ever performance and in France the Socialist Parties 14 seats was the worst since elections to the European Parliament began in 1979. In Spain Zapatero's PSOE and Italy's 'Partito Democratica' both got barely a third of the seats, disappointing results for Berlusconi's Opposition when even his own wife has left him and promised to divorce him for 'consorting with minors'. While in Hungary the ruling Socialists returned only 4 out of 22 seats a result almost exactly paralleling that in the UK with its own UKIP and BNP, the first a nasty xenophobic Party picking up seats and the second 'Jobbick' a violently anti-Roma and anti-semitic Party winning a seat as well. Maybe the voters of Europe have just collectively fallen out of favour with social democracy. The drop in the vote across Europe from 2004 of 6% - and down to 159 seats - was not far from that in Britain. Certainly part of the explanations we look for need to be less insular.

The far-right had mixed fortunes. In Romania the 'Greater Romanian Party' continued to be represented even if it lost seats, in Austria the two extreme Parties split 18% between them in the wake of Jorg Haider's death from dangerous driving while in France Le Pen's 'Front National' elected Le Pen himself and his two putative successors, his daughter Marianne and his Deputy Bruno Gollnisch. Not a recipe for harmonious relations, nor is it clear that they have the numbers willing to gather together to form an official "Fascist" Group.

The main winners were the Centre-Right in Government whether Germany, Italy or France, plus the pro-Europeans in Old Europe namely the Greens and Liberals in Germany and the Greens in France. Promised Tory Allies in their new right-wing sceptical grouping in Poland and the Czech Republic did poorly, while Scandinavian  turnout and voter engagement rose significantly - in Estonia by 15%.As for the Communist Left a disappointing showing. France's Trotskyists are back this time in the guise of the new Anti-Capitalist Party, but largely at the expense of the now virtually defunk French Communist Party, while they have disappeared entirely in Italy. even the promised surge forward of 'De Linke' - the union of the old East German Communist Party with Oscar La Fontaine's Left Party - was more of a stumble foward as their new resolutely anti-European stance saw them on 7.2% outstripped by the Greens on 12.3% and the Liberals on 10.3% respectively. (82)    

The others to gain across Europe were the flotsam and jetsam of politics, or if one lumps in the likes of UKIP and the BNP, the Mad, the Bad and the Sad. The Pirate Party in Sweden campaigning against copyright laws protecting intellectual property rights, Hans Peter Martin in Austria? (check elected) with his guerilla campaign against MEP expenses, etc who gained more than 8% of the vote increasing the number of incoherent and single issue 'Others' to ninety in a Parliament of 736? Afterall what will the Pirate Party's position be on CAP Reform.

What does it mean for the Parliament and European Politics? Certainly for the last decade and more there have been a number of coalition options in the Parliament. Various have controlled and shared the trappings of power. At one time it was Socialists/Christian Democrat, then Christian Democrat/Liberal and in the last Parliament it was a German led Grand Coalition of Christian Democrat/Socialists. In contrast they swopped and changed to the music of legislation on an almost monthly basis with the Centre/Left leading on social legislation, the Centre/Right on liberalization and the two large Centre Parties on much else.

Now the numbers indicate the only game in town is a Grand Coalition between Christian Democrats and Socialists. Martin Schultz the German Socialist Group leader in the Parliament was on track to continue to run the Group for the next two and a half years before seamlessly moving over to Preside over the Parliament in exchange for handclapping support for Barrosso's continuation as President of the Commission and the rest of the package deal. Yet much of the blame for the Socialists unprecedentedly bad showing in Germany is beinglaid at the doors of this coalition. Politics should trump personalities. The continued march of Europe may depend on someone challenging a cosy arrangement that awards and priviledges positions at the expense of coherent progressive European policies and politics.

Glyn Ford